System Approach to Managing Occupational Risks in Railway Transport Based on a Cognitive-Profiling Model

The article addresses the problem of the human factor dominance as a key cause of occupational injuries in high-risk industries, using railway transport as an example. In contrast to traditional reactive approaches, a comprehensive proactive methodology is proposed, integrating cognitive modeling of cause-and-effect relationships with probabilistic-statistical profiling of professional suitability. The core of the research is an original mathematical model of the "human-technology-environment" system, formalized using the theory of weighted graphs and fuzzy cognitive maps. Based on it, a new method for quantitative assessment of an employee's compliance with the profession has been developed through the construction of a benchmark statistical profile. The effectiveness of integrating FMEA and HRA methods into the algorithm for risk-based design of technological processes is proven. Testing confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed solutions, resulting in a statistically significant reduction in the injury rate. The scientific novelty lies in the synthesis of cognitive and qualimetric approaches, which allows for a transition from stating errors to predicting and systematically minimizing risks caused by the human factor.

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